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Palm oil prices have continued its upward trend owing to expected fall in Malaysian supply as well as surging demand in China and Indonesia, among other factors.
Is there any underlying dynamics which can predict the future direction of palm oil? Is it possible for palm oil to cross the 3,000 ringgit price limit?
It is a long steep hike for palm oil to reach that summit. Probably require more hard pushes from both supply and demand forces.
Palm oil prices have been rising owing to risks of a significant reduction in supply. Analysts in PIPOC in November 2019 viewed supply impacted by a raft of factors including dry weather and lower fertiliser.
These factors have affected palm oil production in key markets- Indonesia and Malaysia. The lower usage of fertiliser (due to credit unavailability) is likely to affect crop yield in 2020.
Now the question is would prices reach over 3000 ringgit. Based on the currently available information, indeed prices would be marching upward, but it is unlikely for them to cross the 3000 levels. Prices would likely be out of steam but to hover over 3700 ringgit in Q1 2020.
Having said that there are some upside risks that prices can cross the 3000 ringgit benchmark depending on the crop yield, Indonesia’s B30’ programme, the US-China trade negotiations etc.
I would suggest contacting Palm Oil Analytics at http://palmoilanalytics.com/.