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Coronavirus seems to become a major theme in 2020 and seem already wiped out billions from the stock markets. There are some warning from various central banks that the growth could be affected due to various factors such as travel bans.
How much impact we should expect in the annual (2020) as well as Q1 2020 growth?
It is highly difficult to put a number on it as it is still an emerging situation. The virus has affected the market sentiment and that is why some stock markets lost a huge chunk. They started recovering from yesterday, at least in the US.
I think we totally failed to address the issue at the start otherwise we would not face that much headache.
Of course, there would be some shaving off the growth. Most key markets will see some dip, the question is how deep. China will see a notable drop and so in a few more Asians markets. Most industries would be affected.
Tourism would be the key to remain a drag on the growth. Transporation disruptions would be another factor affecting the global supply chain and ultimately the manufacturing industry.
Just learned that G7 countries have pledged cooperation to fight coronavirus slowdown. Late but not that much.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/mar/03/markets-ftse-g7-coronavirus-donald-trump-rate-cuts-mark-carney-business-live
OECD has announced that it lowered its central growth forecast from 2.9% to 2.4%. However, it also stated that a “longer-lasting and more intensive coronavirus outbreak” could slash the global economic growth to 1.5% in 2020.
The IMF also downgraded its growth forecast for China to 5.6% for 2020 from 6.1% in 2019 – its lowest level since 1990.
The Fed also has just cut its benchmark rate by a half percentage point. This may provide some support to the panicking market.